The pivotal Offseason in Portland

After a disappointing season where the team traded away Damian Lillard's longtime running mate in CJ McCollum and tanked hard down the stretch, the Portland Trail Blazers are entering a pivotal offseason that may be their last real chance to re-tool around Lillard. There are two pretty distinct pathways that the Blazers can take this summer, and that is operating as a cap space team or as an over-the-cap team. There are pros and cons to each approach, and we will flesh out each pathway fully below.

Operating as a Cap space team

Non-Max Space
Portland has a couple different avenues that they can take to carve out significant cap space, all the way up to max cap space if needed. Generating any amount of cap space would come at the cost of retaining the bird rights of all free agents outside of Anfernee Simons, which includes Jusuf Nurkic and Joe Ingles, as well as waiving the $19.4 million contract of Eric Bledsoe, which only $3.9 million is guaranteed. Doing all this generates about ~$24 million in cap space. They also have the fully non-guaranteed deal of Josh Hart, which is almost $13 million, although it is unlikely that they waive him considering how well he played in a Blazer uniform last year. 

A summary of the actions necessary to carve out~$24 mil in space:
- Waiving all free agency bird rights except Simons, including Nurkic and Ingles
- Waiving the contract of Bledsoe, which is only guaranteed for $3.9 mil

25% Max Space
If they were able to find a taker for Keon Johnson and Justise Winslow's contracts and stretch the remaining guaranteed amount on Bledsoe's deal, they could carve out over $30 million, which is enough to put in a max offer sheet for Deandre Ayton. As previously mentioned, they could instead just waive Hart's deal, but that is doubtful. If Phoenix really does not have an appetite to max Ayton, they could be inclined not to match an offer from Portland. This leaves Portland with a Dame, Simons, Hart, Little, Ayton lineup, with only the room exception and minimum deals to fill out the roster with veteran talent.

A summary of the actions necessary to carve out space for a 25% max slot:
- Waiving all free agency bird rights except Simons, including Nurkic and Ingles
- Waiving and stretching the contract of Bledsoe, which is only guaranteed for $3.9 mil
- Trading Winslow and Johson into cap space, or waiving Hart's non-guaranteed deal

30% Max Space
If Portland believed they had the inside track on Zach Lavine, they could also waive Hart's deal to generate enough cap space to max Lavine and pair him with Lillard. Though, that produces a backcourt rotation of Lillard, Lavine, and Simons, which leaves a lot to be desired on the defensive side of the ball. Additionally, that does not fix the hole at center stemming from waiving the bird rights to Nurkic. There is a pretty deep center free agent market this season and the team could take a gamble on a cheap vet like JaVale McGee, Hassan Whiteside, Isaiah Hartenstein, or Andre Drummond. If they choose to go this route, they are only left with the room exception and minimum deals to bring in a center and fill out the rotation with veteran talent.

A summary of the actions necessary to carve out space for a 30% max slot:
- Waiving all free agency bird rights except Simons, including Nurkic and Ingles
- Waiving and stretching the contract of Bledsoe, which is only guaranteed for $3.9 mil
- Trading Winslow into cap space, and waiving Hart's non-guaranteed deal

I'm just not convinced operating as a cap space team would leave Portland in a better place than where they have been the last couple of years. Where they need help the most is at the forward spots, and there is a dearth of talent and depth at both spots in this free agent market. You can take a look at who is available in this class here. We will get our first hint at the Blazers' offseason plans on June 25th, as that is the day that Hart's deal guarantees if not waived beforehand.

Operating as an over-the-cap team

My preferred route for the Portland Trail Blazers to go this offseason would be to just stay over the cap, as this actually gives them more avenues to maintain and add talent to the roster. Operating as an over-the-cap team gives them the ability to do the following:

- Retain the bird rights of all their free agents
- Utilize the ~$21 million trade exception (TPE) generated from the McCollum trade
- Utilize the Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception, worth $10,349,000 (NTMLE)

So let's say they bring Simons back on a 4 year, $80 million deal and Nurkic on a deal paying $18-$20 million annually, both seem to be fair market value for their respective positions and talent levels. These numbers are also in line with their Estimated Player Values, which can be found here. Assuming they still waive Bledsoe, they can use the full trade exception and NTMLE and stay under the hard cap while filling out the roster. They could move Winslow into someone's cap space or deal the #7 pick in a trade combined with the TPE and stay out of the tax completely. Let's take a look at some of the player's they could target with the TPE and NTMLE:

Traded Player Exception:
- Jerami Grant
- Tim Hardaway Jr
- Bojan Bogdanovic
- Joe Harris
- Harrison Barnes
- Bogdan Bogdanovic
- Jonathan Isaac
- OG Anunoby

Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception
- Bruce brown
- Bobby Portis
- Pat Connaughton
- TJ Warren
- Kyle Anderson
- Taurean Waller-Prince
- Juan Toscano-Anderson

Staying over-the-cap gives Portland the chance to retain key players that have chemistry with Lillard in Nurkic and Simons while still having tools available to them to add real talent to the roster. They could still go after big name free agents, such as Deandre Ayton or Zach Lavine, by going the sign-and-trade route, though it may be a bit trickier to hammer out the details.

Ultimately, the Blazers are headed into arguably their most important offseason in some time. They have the flexibility and optionality to go down whichever pathway they feel is best, but they need to hit on their decisions if they want to retool and build a real contender around Damian Lillard.