Best and worst value signings of free agency

With free agency all but completely wrapped up, I thought it would be a good time to go through and take a look at some of the best value and worst value signings throughout the league. To calculate this, I took each players Estimated Player Value (EPV), that you can find here, and compared it against the player's reported 2022-2023 salary that they were signed for. Let's take a look below.

Best Value Deals

Bruce Brown
Signing Team: Denver Nuggets
2022-2023 Salary: $6,479,000
Estimated Player Value: $15,810,638
Value over Signing: $9,331,368.

Bruce Brown was a tremendous value signing for the Nuggets, as they were able to bring him in only using the full Tax-Payer Mid-Level Exception. Brown seemed to be a casualty of the Kevin Durant trade request, as he played a pivotal role for the Brooklyn Nets last year in their series against Brooklyn, averaging 14 points, 5 rebounds, and 3 assists per game on 57/43/80 shooting splits. His overlapping skillset with Ben Simmons probably played a role in the Nets not bringing Brown back as well. The Nuggets may have trouble re-signing Brown next offseason if he plays as well as he did in Brooklyn alongside Jokic in Denver, as he can opt out of his player option for 2023-2024 and become a free agent again in a year's time.

Donte DiVincenzo
Signing Team: Golden State Warriors
2022-2023 Salary: $4,536,585
Estimated Player Value: $12,602,629
Value over Signing: $8,066,044

I'm still confused as to why the Sacramento Kings brought in Donte DiVincenzo at the trade deadline last year only to let him walk as a restricted free agent this summer, prioritizing Malik Monk instead. DiVincenzo is a very solid role player and doesn't need the ball to be effective. He will be a great fit in Golden State, and will be able to rehab his value into a better payday next offseason, as he also has a player option for the 2023-2024 season. 

Jae'Sean Tate
Signing Team: Houston Rockets
2022-2023 Salary: $7,065,217
Estimated Player Value: $12,794,081
Value over Signing: $5,728,864

Jae'Sean Tate had a minimum team option turned down as he and the Rockets came to terms on a new 3 year, $20.6 million deal with a team option in the third year. This was a great deal for the Rockets, as they were able to reward Tate with an additional $5 million this year while locking him down for another 3 years below his market value, in my opinion. 

Jevon Carter
Signing Team: Milwaukee Bucks
2022-2023 Salary: $2,100,000
Estimated Player Value: $6,898,640
Value over Signing: $4,798,640

The Milwaukee Bucks bringing back Jevon Carter using his non-bird rights really was a no brainer. He played very well last year in the limited minutes he was given, and will probably have a good chance to earn a larger role this coming year. Carter was able to secure a player option in the second year of his deal, and could play his way into a bigger contract next offseason, with Milwaukee retaining his early bird rights.

Juan Toscano-Anderson
Signing Team: Los Angeles Lakers
2022-2023 Salary: $1,836,090
Estimated Player Value: $6,420,413.
Value over Signing: $4,584,323

I wasn't quite sure why Juan Toscano-Anderson took a minimum deal with the Los Angeles Lakers so quickly into free agency. It especially makes no sense since Otto Porter and Gary Payton II ended up leaving Golden State and signing with new teams. Maybe once the Warriors were sure they Payton and Porter were gone, they would have offered Toscano-Anderson a little more money to stay and pick up more minutes in the rotation. However, maybe it just wasn't feasible considering their tax bill. Regardless, he should have plenty of opportunity to crack the rotation in LA and earn a better deal in a year.

Injury Dependent Value Deals

TJ Warren
Signing Team: Brooklyn Nets
2022-2023 Salary: $1,836,090
Estimated Player Value: $14,804,939*
Value over Signing: $12,968,849
*Doesn't factor in injury

I was very confused when it came out that TJ Warren ultimately only ended up signing a minimum deal in Brooklyn. The last time he was on the court, he looked like a solid starting forward and was killing it in The Bubble. However, he has been hurt for two straight years, and there must have been some bad injury intel going around this offseason. If he is able to get back to where he was two years ago, this will be tremendous value for Brooklyn.

Ricky Rubio
Signing Team: Cleveland Cavaliers
2022-2023 Salary: $5,841,269
Estimated Player Value: $15,400,644*
Value over Signing: $9,559,374
*Doesn't factor in injury

Ricky Rubio was playing great last year in Cleveland before he unfortunately ended up tearing his ACL. If he is able to make a full recovery, this could be a great value signing, as it is 3 years, $18.4 million with $16.3 million guaranteed. A healthy Rubio is a great backup point guard to Garland, and can even play alongside him, as last season showed.

Worst Value Deals

Bradley Beal
Signing Team: Washington Wizards
2022-2023 Salary: $43,279,250
Estimated Player Value: $27,302,555
Value Under Signing: ($15,976,694)

The Washington Wizards may have felt as though they had no choice but to offer Bradley Beal the supermax, but it comes in quite a bit over his EPV. This contract definitely is not favorable to the Wizards, and may prove difficult to trade down the line if they intend to go that route, not even factoring in the no-trade clause they included. We will see if Beal is able to improve his play over a bit of a drop in efficiency over the last couple years.

Zach Lavine
Signing Team: Chicago Bulls
2022-2023 Salary: $43,279,250
Estimated Player Value: $37,096,500
Value Under Signing: ($9,216,316)

The Bulls were ultimately in a similar position as the Wizards, as they felt had no choice but to re-sign Lavine to a max deal. I would counter that I'm not sure where he would have gotten it in the marketplace, but it is probably ultimately not worth pissing off your franchise player. 

Marvin Bagley III
Signing Team: Detroit Pistons
2022-2023 Salary: $12,500,000
Estimated Player Value: $4,636,965
Value Under Signing: ($7,863,034)

This deal was a bit of a head scratcher as soon as it was announced. The Pistons already had Isaiah Stewart Jalen Duren, Kelly Olynyk, and Nerlens Noel under contract for next year. Even if they wanted to still bring Bagley back, I'm surprised they did at such a high number, with his full deal being a 3 year, $37 million. I am not sure who they were bidding against, if anyone. 

Gary Harris
Signing Team: Orlando Magic
2022-2023 Salary: $13,000,000
Estimated Player Value: $6,488,820
Value Under Signing: ($6,511,179)

This deal makes a lot more sense when thinking about the off-the-court reasons why it was done. It technically was a 2 year, $26,000,000 extension with the second year being fully non-guaranteed. This makes Harris eligible to be traded right away. I assume the Magic signed Harris to a bigger number to serve as a trade chip to bring in unwanted, longer term money from teams looking to offload salary. That way, Harris is effectively a walking TPE, an expiring deal that could still maybe provide decent minutes on a good team.